Out of Japan’s 47 prefectures, Tokyo will be the only one to see a population that is higher in 2050 than it was during the most recent census in 2020. The rest of the country can expect populations to shrink, some by over 30%.
The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research is forecasting Tokyo’s population to continue growing until 2040, before entering a gradual decline. By 2035, the population of the capital is expected to be approximately 14.46 million, peaking in 2040, before entering into a gradual decline. By 2050, it is forecast to be 14.4 million, 2.5% higher than it was in 2020.
Neighboring prefectures of Kanagawa (-7.7%), Chiba (-9.5%), and Saitama (-9.7%) are not expected to fare as well. Even Osaka Prefecture is headed for a 17.8% decline between now and 2050.
Some of the worst declines may be in the Tohoku region. Akita Prefecture will see the greatest population decline nationwide with a 41.6% drop by 2050. Aomori Prefecture is in second spot with a 39.0% predicted decline.
Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, December 22, 2023.
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