RBI’s monetary policy decision, global trade negotiations to guide markets next week

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Investors will keenly watch the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming monetary policy decision for future market guidance. Additionally, market participants will monitor global developments, particularly trade tensions, to navigate the ongoing consolidation phase.

India’s equity market closed in the red this week. The subdued performance was primarily driven by global trade tensions and anticipation around domestic policy decisions.

Benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, experienced significant swings before closing lower amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff developments and caution ahead of the RBI’s policy announcement. Both indices declined over 1%, with the Nifty ending at 24,750.70 and the Sensex at 81,451.01.

“Despite encouraging domestic cues, mixed signals from global markets kept investor sentiment on edge. Initially, optimism prevailed following the RBI’s record dividend payout and positive updates regarding the monsoon. However, as the week progressed, concerns surrounding rising U.S. bond yields, trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union, and the ongoing legal battle over U.S. tariffs weighed on market sentiment, limiting the scope for any meaningful recovery,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

He added that looking ahead, all eyes will be on the outcome of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6. The market is pricing in a 25bps cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors.

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